Imports Down 30%, Rally at Week 39: The Late-June Steel Read

The steel market’s defining feature at the end of June is duration: HRC prices are well into a 39-week rally, domestic production is running more than 6% ahead of last year, and the tariff framework just got another adjustment. Meanwhile, the July scrap buy is shaping up flat — and summer seasonality will keep a lid on any near-term upside.

The June 232 revision: what actually changed

On June 1, President Trump signed a new proclamation further adjusting the Section 232 tariff regime on aluminum, steel, and copper, with changes effective June 8 through December 31, 2027. The 25% base rate on most steel imports stays in place. What’s new:

• Agricultural and certain other equipment: rate drops from 25% to 15%
• Industrial equipment and machinery: temporarily modified to 15%
• Capital equipment containing at least 85% U.S.-origin steel or aluminum by weight: a new 10% rate

That last provision matters if you’re buying recycling or shredder equipment — it creates a direct financial incentive to specify domestic-content capital purchases. The full White House fact sheet has the detail on what qualifies. For procurement teams at scrap yards, it’s worth a look before your next equipment buy.

Steel imports have fallen 30% — that volume has to come from somewhere

The cumulative effect of tariffs is now showing up clearly in trade data: U.S. steel imports are running roughly 30% below year-ago levels on a year-to-date basis. That’s not a small adjustment — it’s a structural shift in where mills are sourcing metal. Domestic production is filling the gap, which is part of why utilization has stayed elevated and mill lead times have extended three to four weeks beyond last summer’s levels.

HRC ended the week of June 25 near $1,195/ton, up roughly 35% year-over-year. At 39 weeks and counting, this isn’t a spike — it’s a repricing of domestic steel that the tariff structure is designed to sustain through at least end of 2027.

July scrap: flat, and summer seasonality will hold it there

The July ferrous scrap buy is shaping up flat relative to June, consistent with what tends to happen in midsummer: vacation schedules thin industrial scrap generation, auto plants retool around the July 4th holiday, and prime flows ease. On the export side, Turkish buyers have been successfully pushing HMS prices down in Northern Europe — a signal that global export demand isn’t pulling hard enough to drive any domestic movement.

Domestic raw steel output for the week ending June 13 was 1.854 million net tons at 80.3% capacity utilization — slightly off the 81.3% from the prior week, but year-to-date production is still running 6.3% ahead of the same period in 2025.

What this means for your pins

• Domestic steel advantage is structural, not seasonal. With imports down 30% and tariffs locked in through 2027, domestic steel producers — and wear-part manufacturers drawing from domestic supply — have supply-chain certainty that offshore suppliers don’t. Verify your pin supplier’s steel sourcing; it’s not academic right now.
• The new 85% domestic-content provision rewards buyers who already lean domestic. If you’re speccing replacement equipment or capital upgrades, that 10% tariff rate is only available on machines built with U.S. steel. Worth factoring into your next purchase decision.
• A flat July buy against a 39-week finished-steel rally means the mill-vs.-scrap spread keeps widening. Uptime remains the only lever you fully control. A pin failure during a summer run costs the same whether scrap prices are moving or not.

For live data and the industry feeds we track, see the Industry News & Market Data links on The Pin Post.