The Rally Catches Its Breath: Nucor Holds, Utilization Slips, USMCA Goes Sideways
The headline for the week around the Fourth: after a run that pushed prices to their highest level in two and a half years, the steel market took a breather. Nucor held its price flat, mill output eased slightly, and a bigger trade story broke on the Canada/Mexico front. None of it looks like a turn — but it’s the first quiet week in a while, and quiet weeks are worth reading carefully.
Nucor stops hiking
Nucor kept its hot-rolled coil consumer spot price unchanged at $1,130 per short ton on June 29, ending a streak of weekly increases that had been running since January. The joint-venture CSI price also held at $1,180/ton. Nucor said it’s watching import levels alongside domestic and global price trends — but also said underlying demand is “strong and improving,” with growth expected to continue into 2027. Broader market data backs that up: US sheet prices have risen in 25 of the last 30 weeks, and the benchmark HRC spot price sat at $1,169/ton on July 3 — down about 2% over the past month, but still 33% above a year ago.
Mill utilization eases off its highs
AISI reported domestic raw steel production at 1.842 million net tons for the week ending June 27, with capacity utilization at 79.8% — down slightly from 80.2% the prior week. It’s a small pullback, not a trend reversal: year-to-date production through June 27 is still running 6.0% ahead of the same period in 2025. Read it as mills managing output around a rally that’s matured, not mills losing pricing power.
USMCA renewal stalls — steel tariffs are a sticking point
The bigger structural story broke July 1: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced Washington will not renew USMCA “in its current form” after the mandated six-year joint review with Canada and Mexico. The treaty itself doesn’t lapse — non-renewal triggers a decade of annual reviews instead — but Canada has flagged US sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber as a top priority for the bilateral talks Greer says he wants layered on top of the base agreement. Translation: the steel tariff framework that’s underpinned this whole rally isn’t getting simpler anytime soon, and Canada/Mexico-specific carve-outs are back on the table as a live negotiation, not a settled matter.
Scrap: firm, with an export tug-of-war
Ferrous scrap is holding steady heading into July — scrap steel priced at $383/ton on July 2, up slightly on the day but down about 4% over the past month, still up double digits year-over-year. The bigger action is on the export side: Turkish buyers have pushed HMS 80/20 prices down $6–13/mt in deep-sea cargoes from the US and Canada, taking advantage of a lull in EU and North American purchases. Whether US and Canadian exporters go along with that discount is an open question — domestic demand is still described as “vibrant,” which gives sellers leverage to hold firm.
What this means for your pins
- A pause isn’t a peak. Nucor holding flat after months of hikes, and utilization easing a few tenths of a point, both read as a market catching its breath — not cracking. Budget for continued elevated steel costs into H2, not a snapback to 2024 pricing.
- USMCA uncertainty is now a live variable again. If any of your pins, tie rods, or replacement equipment cross the Canada/Mexico border at any stage, the next few months of bilateral “protocol” talks are worth watching — carve-outs or new sectoral terms could move faster than a full treaty renewal ever would.
- Domestic sourcing still insulates you from the export tug-of-war. Turkish buyers pressuring HMS export prices lower doesn’t touch domestic mill pricing the way it would if you depended on imported semi-finished steel. Pins made from 100% American steel don’t have that exposure — one less thing to track during a summer of trade-policy noise.
For live data and the industry feeds we track, see the Industry News & Market Data links on The Pin Post.