Mills Eased Off to 78%, Coil Hit $1,210 — and October Scrap Looks Steady

Last week’s post covered mills running at 82% and scrap stuck in a sideways market. This week the furnaces cooled a little, coil prices did not, and October scrap buying is about to start. Here is what matters for a shredder yard.

Utilization dropped back under 80%

After the big jump the week before, output gave some of it back. For the week ended September 19, U.S. mills produced 1,785,000 net tons at 77.9% capability utilization, down 6.1% from the prior week. That is still 0.6% more than the same week of 2025, and year-to-date production of 68.3 million net tons runs at 79.0% utilization. One soft week doesn’t change the trend: domestic mills are melting more steel this year than last.

Coil kept climbing anyway

Nucor didn’t wait for the utilization number to firm back up. It raised its hot-rolled coil consumer spot price another $10 to $1,210 per short ton on September 22, with its West Coast joint venture California Steel Industries matching at $1,270 and lead times holding at three to five weeks. That follows the $1,200 level set the week before. Weekly $10 steps have become routine. Mills are still pricing like they have pricing power.

October scrap: steady to firmer

On the scrap side, the tone for the next buy cycle is a notch better than September’s flat call. Kallanish reports the U.S. market eyeing steady-to-firmer October trade. That fits last month’s Fastmarkets survey, which found 74% consensus around a sideways market. Nobody is calling for a rally, but the downside talk has faded. For a shredder, a stable shred price paired with mills that still need units is a workable setup heading into fall.

Steelmakers are defending the 50% tariff

On September 25, the Steel Manufacturers Association, AISI and three other trade groups sent a letter urging the President to stand firm against any efforts to weaken the Section 232 tariffs on steel and steel derivatives. Under the June proclamation, the rate on steel articles and Annex I-A derivatives is 50%, with the current regime running through December 31, 2027. A lobbying push like this suggests the industry sees some pressure to loosen the tariffs. For now, nothing has changed.

The labor deadline is here

The 30-day extensions the USW agreed with U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs after the September 1 expiration run out around the start of October. Workers remain on the job under the old terms while talks continue in Pittsburgh. This is also U.S. Steel’s first contract negotiation since Nippon Steel acquired it. Watch for a deal or another extension this week. Integrated mill output matters less to shredders than EAF demand, but a disruption would tighten finished steel even further.

What this means for your pins

The pattern hasn’t changed in a month: finished steel keeps going up in $10 steps while the scrap you sell holds steady. Alloy bar and forgings follow coil and mill costs, not shred. With tariffs possibly in play and a labor deadline days away, wear-part pricing has more ways to go up than down.

That makes this a sensible time to lock in your fall and winter pin supply rather than buy one set at a time. A failed pin mid-shift costs you the tons you didn’t run, and a rush order with three-to-five-week mill lead times costs you again. Domestic pins made from American steel keep you out of the import-tariff equation entirely, so the only price risk you carry is the U.S. steel market itself. Keep spares on the shelf, stick to your change-out schedule, and track wear parts in your cost per ton shredded.