Scrap Finally Turns Up for October as Coil Hits $1,220 and Mills Climb Back Over 80%

For most of the late summer, the story in this space was the same: finished steel going up, scrap going nowhere. This week that changed. October scrap looks like it will actually move, while mills and coil prices kept running. Here’s what matters for a shredder yard.

Scrap sentiment flipped from flat to firm

Last month, Fastmarkets’ survey found near-unanimous agreement on a sideways market. The October edition reads very differently. Its trend indicator jumped to 65.9, pointing to a solid month-on-month increase, with a modeled average price gain of 6.6%. Sellers are the most bullish at 72.4, buyers are more measured at 59.38, and inventory scored 46.7, slightly below average, meaning stocks are on the tight side. Respondents named higher demand as the main driver, along with constrained supply in some segments, stronger export incentives and possible mill outages.

Not everyone is calling it a rally. Steel Market Update describes the October outlook as “strong sideways”: sellers are optimistic, buyers admit the market is firm but aren’t conceding an increase, and nobody is predicting a downturn. Either way, the floor under shred looks solid going into the fourth quarter.

Mills climbed back over 80%

The previous week’s dip didn’t last. For the week ended September 26, U.S. mills produced 1,845,000 net tons at 80.5% capability utilization, up 3.4% from the week before and 3.9% above the same week last year. Year-to-date output reached 70.2 million net tons at 79.1% utilization, 5.3% ahead of 2025. Busy furnaces need units, and that is exactly the demand scrap sellers are pointing to.

Coil: eight straight increases

Nucor raised its hot-rolled coil consumer spot price another $10 to $1,220 per short ton on September 29, its eighth consecutive weekly increase. Its West Coast joint venture California Steel Industries followed to $1,280. For context, coil was at $1,185 at the end of August. That’s a steady march with no sign of a pause.

Labor talks go to 48-hour extensions

The 30-day contract extensions between the USW, U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs ran out October 1. Instead of a deadline fight, the union moved to rolling 48-hour extensions that renew automatically unless either side ends them with proper notice. The USW’s September 26 update said the sides exchanged several rounds of counterproposals and made some progress on economic issues, though significant work remains. Workers are still on the job. But a 48-hour notice window is a much shorter fuse than 30 days, so this is worth watching week to week.

What this means for your pins

A firmer scrap market is good news for your revenue side. More dollars per ton out the gate makes every hour of uptime worth more. That also means every hour of downtime costs more. When shred is moving up, a pin failure in the middle of a shift costs more lost margin than it would have in a flat market.

Meanwhile, the inputs behind wear parts are still on the steel curve: coil up eight weeks in a row, mills running above 80%, and labor talks on a two-day renewal cycle. None of that points to cheaper alloy bar this fall.

The play is the same as last week, with more urgency behind it. Stock spares before the winter run, change pins on schedule instead of at failure, and measure wear parts in your cost per ton shredded. Domestic pins made from American steel keep you clear of import tariffs and overseas lead times, so when the yard is busiest, you’re not waiting on a boat.