October Scrap Stalls at the Table as Coil Climbs to $1,230 and Mills Dip to 78%
Last week, the October scrap outlook pointed up. This week, the market had to put an actual price on that, and buyers and sellers couldn’t agree. Meanwhile, coil kept rising and mills took a short breather. Here’s what a shredder yard should know.
October scrap hasn’t settled yet
Normally the monthly domestic scrap trade is wrapped up by the 10th. Not this time. Fastmarkets said that as of Friday, October 9, several North American ferrous markets still hadn’t settled, including Chicago, Detroit and Cincinnati consumer buying prices and the Chicago delivered-mill low-residual shredded clips price. Because buyers and sellers hadn’t agreed on numbers, and the 10th fell on a Saturday, publication was pushed back.
That’s a standoff, not a collapse. Going into the month, Fastmarkets’ survey pointed to a solid increase, with a modeled average gain of 6.6%, driven by expected higher demand and relatively tight inventories. Sellers came in expecting that number. Mills clearly aren’t handing it over without a fight. If you sell shred, this is a month to hold firm and watch what the first big Midwest buyers actually pay.
Mills eased back below 80%
After climbing over 80% the week before, utilization slipped. For the week ended October 3, U.S. mills produced 1,801,000 net tons at 78.3% capability utilization, down 2.4% from the prior week. Output was still up 4.8% from the same week last year. Year-to-date, mills have made 71.97 million net tons at 79.0% utilization, 5.3% ahead of 2025. The South remains the biggest producing region at 802,000 tons for the week, which matters if your shred heads to Southern EAF mills.
One soft week is probably part of the reason buyers are pushing back on scrap. But the yearly trend is still clearly higher than 2025.
Coil: nine straight increases
Nucor’s October 5 letter set its hot-rolled coil consumer spot price at $1,230, up $10 from the week before, with California Steel Industries at $1,290. Lead times are steady at three to five weeks. Nucor has now raised its price every week since it set $1,190 on September 8. For comparison, the same week in 2025 saw spot coil around $825 to $865 per short ton. That’s a big gap between what mills are getting for finished steel and what they want to pay for scrap, and sellers know it.
Labor talks are still on a two-day fuse
The USW’s contracts with Cleveland-Cliffs moved to rolling 48-hour extensions after the 30-day extension ran out October 1, and reports say U.S. Steel’s contracts are on the same footing. Bargaining with Cliffs resumed October 1. We haven’t seen a public update since. No deal and no strike notice so far, but the risk is still there.
What this means for your pins
A delayed settlement means uncertainty about what this month’s shred is worth. It doesn’t change the basics. Mills are still running near 80%, still making more steel than last year, and still raising coil prices week after week. Demand for your shred hasn’t gone anywhere.
That makes uptime the thing you can control. When the price is still being argued out, the yard that can keep shipping steady tonnage has the stronger hand. An unplanned pin failure mid-shift costs you lost tons, labor and leverage at the same time.
On the cost side, nine straight weekly coil increases plus open labor talks don’t point to cheaper alloy steel this winter. Measure wear parts in cost per ton shredded, not price per pin. Keep a full set of spares on the shelf before the cold-weather run, and buy domestic. American-made pins from American steel keep you clear of import tariffs and overseas lead times, so a replacement is days away, not a boat ride away.