October Scrap Finally Settles $20 Higher as Mills Hold Near 78%

Last week, October scrap was stuck at the negotiating table. This week it got a price, and sellers mostly got what they came in asking for. Here’s where things stand for a shredder yard.

Shred settled up about $20

The standoff broke in the sellers’ favor. Kallanish reported that US scrap settled sharply higher across regions in October, mostly $20 to $30 per gross ton up. Steel Market Update had already seen several steelmakers come in with shredded, plate and structural, and heavy melt up $20 per gross ton from September. By the end of that week, SMU said prices had strengthened from those initial October levels.

The weak spot was prime. Busheling was first left out, then reported up only $10 in some regions, mostly in the northern tier, according to SMU’s early-trading report. That’s good news for shredders. Obsolete grades like shred got the bigger bump this month.

Once the deals were done, the market calmed down. ScrapMonster’s report for October 9-15 found ferrous prices steady across major grades, including shredded auto scrap, with a relatively firm near-term outlook.

Mills holding just under 78%

For the week ended October 10, U.S. mills produced 1,796,000 net tons at 77.8% capability utilization, down 0.3% from the week before. That’s still 4.1% more than the same week in 2025. Year to date, mills have made 73.76 million net tons at 79.0% utilization.

So that’s two soft weeks in a row after topping 80% in late September. It isn’t a slowdown that should worry anyone. Mills are still pulling more scrap than they did a year ago.

Coil is still high

Last week’s number still stands. Nucor’s October 5 letter put its hot-rolled coil spot price at $1,230, its latest in a run of $10 weekly increases since September 8. Kallanish estimated market HRC at $1,210 to $1,220 per short ton in early October, compared with $825 to $865 in the same week of 2025. When finished steel is selling that far above last year, mills have room to pay up for scrap, and this month they did.

Steelmakers push to keep tariffs

On trade, domestic producers urged the administration not to ease Section 232 steel tariffs. They argued the tariffs have supported investment and domestic production, and they pointed to August data showing total US steel imports down about 15% year over year. Fewer imports means domestic mills make more of the steel, and domestic EAFs melt shred.

On labor, the USW’s contracts with Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel have been running on rolling 48-hour extensions since October 1. We haven’t found any public report of a deal or a strike notice since then.

What this means for your pins

A $20 bump on shred is real money, but only on tons you actually ship. October rewards yards that ran steady. Every hour a mill sits idle on a failed pin is tonnage you can’t sell at this month’s higher number.

The same forces lifting scrap, high coil prices and tariff protection, also keep alloy steel expensive. Judge wear parts by cost per ton shredded, not price per pin. A pin that lasts longer and fails predictably beats a cheap one that cracks mid-shift. Domestic pins made from American steel also keep you clear of import tariffs and overseas lead times. With winter coming, get a full spare set on the shelf now.