Mills Jump Back to 81% as Buyers Eye Higher November Scrap

Last week was about October scrap finally settling higher. This week, the attention moved to November, and the early read for shredder yards is good. Mills are running hard again, and buyers themselves expect to pay more next month.

Mills back above 80%

After two soft weeks, utilization came back strong. AISI reported 1,870,000 net tons for the week ended October 17 at 80.9% capability utilization, up 4.1% from the week before and 8.6% higher than the same week in 2025. That’s the biggest weekly jump we’ve seen in a while, and it lines up with SteelOrbis’s week 42 headline.

One caution from AISI: the weekly numbers are estimates, built from producers covering about half of domestic capacity. Read them as a trend, not an exact count. The trend is clear, though. Mills are melting more than they were a year ago.

November scrap tilting up

Steel Market Update’s poll of market players found that scrap prices will probably rise again in November. That follows an October settlement where mills paid up $20 to $30 per gross ton, and some paid more. Respondents described demand as stable to improving.

Not everyone is that bullish. iScrap’s market summary said steel scrap is holding near some of its stronger price ranges of the year, with sentiment it called cautiously steady. Mid-month trade was quiet: ScrapMonster’s October 9-15 report had shredded auto scrap and other major ferrous grades steady, with a relatively firm near-term outlook.

Coil keeps climbing

Nucor raised its hot-rolled coil spot price to $1,240 per short ton on October 12, then to $1,255 on October 19. That’s a $15 increase this time, bigger than the steady $10 steps since September. California Steel Industries is now at $1,320.

What Steel Dynamics’ numbers tell a scrap seller

Steel Dynamics reported third-quarter results on October 19, and the numbers show the gap between finished steel and scrap. Its mills’ average external steel selling price rose $102 to $1,400 per ton, while ferrous scrap cost per ton melted fell $8 to $404. Steel operating income was about $1.0 billion on record shipments of 3.8 million tons.

The other side of the ledger was its recycling business. SDI’s metals recycling operating income fell to $33 million, down $15 million from the second quarter, on lower ferrous scrap pricing and metal spread contraction. Average realized ferrous scrap prices were down $15 per gross ton from the prior quarter.

Put simply, mills made a lot of money in the third quarter, and processors made less. That’s part of why sellers pushed for more in October. Nucor, which guided to $5.55 to $5.65 per share for the third quarter, reports after the close on October 26.

What this means for your pins

Mills at 81%, coil at $1,255, and buyers expecting higher scrap in November all mean the same thing: your shred has a market, and every ton counts. The weak spot is margin. As SDI’s recycling numbers show, the spread between what a processor pays for feed and what it sells shred for can shrink fast. When it does, cost per ton shredded matters more.

Wear parts are one of the costs you can actually control. A pin that lasts longer and wears predictably lowers your cost per ton and lets you plan changeouts on your schedule, not the shredder’s. An unplanned failure during a strong month costs you lost tons at the best price of the year.

With coil still rising, alloy steel won’t get cheaper soon. Buy domestic pins made from American steel to stay clear of import tariffs and long overseas lead times, and get a full spare set on the shelf before winter.