Nucor Beats Guidance, Coil Hits $1,270, and Mills Ease Back to 77%

Last week’s story was mills running above 80% and buyers expecting to pay more for November scrap. This week the biggest buyer of scrap in the country reported its quarter, coil kept climbing, and mill output cooled off. November scrap trade is just getting started, so here’s what matters going in.

Nucor’s quarter, and what it says about demand

Nucor reported third-quarter net earnings of $1.32 billion, or $5.80 per diluted share, up from $2.63 a year earlier and above the $5.55 to $5.65 it guided in September. Net sales were about $11.25 billion, and SteelOrbis reported net income up 14.1%.

Two details matter for a shredder yard. First, Nucor’s steel shipments were up 11.2% from a year earlier, and every one of those tons out the door means scrap coming in. Second, management said it expects fourth-quarter earnings to be in line with or modestly higher than the third. That’s not a mill getting ready to pull back on melting.

The raw materials segment, which includes Nucor’s own scrap recycling, earned $105 million, down from $146 million in the second quarter. The second-quarter figure included one-time refunds, so the drop looks worse than it is. Still, it fits what Steel Dynamics showed the week before: mills are doing better than processors right now.

Coil up another $15

Nucor raised its hot-rolled coil spot price to $1,270 per short ton on October 26, a second straight $15 increase. Spot lead times held at three to five weeks. When finished steel sells at that level, mills have room to pay up for good feed.

Mills take a breather

Utilization dropped back after the big jump the week before. AISI data reported by SteelOrbis showed 1.774 million net tons for the week ended October 24 at 76.8% capability utilization, down 5.1% from the prior week’s 80.9%. Output was still about 3.0% above the same week of 2025, and year-to-date utilization stands at 79.0%.

Weekly utilization has swung up and down all fall, so one soft week isn’t a trend. The year-over-year comparison is the better read, and it’s still positive.

November scrap: watch the settlement

November prices hadn’t settled when this was written. Going into the month, Fastmarkets’ survey-based October outlook said expectations for U.S. ferrous scrap prices remained firmly positive, which matches the buyer poll we covered last week. Monthly settlements have run late more than once this year, as Fastmarkets noted with October’s delayed publication, so don’t be surprised if this one drags into the second week too.

What this means for your pins

Coil at $1,270, a big mill telling investors the fourth quarter will be steady or better, and buyers leaning toward higher November scrap all point the same way: demand for your shred should hold through year-end. With processor margins under pressure, most of the gain is in volume and uptime, not in spread.

That’s where wear parts come in. Every hour the shredder is down for an unplanned pin change is tons you don’t ship during a strong market. Pins that wear evenly and last longer lower your cost per ton shredded and let you schedule changeouts around your outbound loads.

Alloy steel prices are moving up with coil, and tariff policy is still changing. Domestic pins made from American steel give you steady pricing, short lead times and no import duties. Check your spare set now so you aren’t caught short when winter weather slows freight.