Mills Jump to 89% as November Scrap Heads Higher

Last week we said one soft week at the mills wasn’t a trend. This week proved it. Output jumped back hard, the November scrap outlook got even stronger, and early trades are pointing up. Here’s what matters for a shredder yard.

Mills back near 89%

AISI data reported by SteelOrbis showed 2.053 million net tons for the week ended October 31 at 88.9% capability utilization. That’s up 15.7% from the prior week’s 76.8% and 19.2% above the same week of 2025, when mills ran at 75.1%. Year-to-date production reached 79.758 million net tons at 79.5% utilization.

Weekly numbers have swung all fall, so don’t plan around any single week. But a year-over-year gain near 20% is hard to wave off. Melt shops running at that pace need a lot of shred.

November scrap: the survey says up

Fastmarkets’ November outlook put its Trend Indicator at 70.6, which forecasts a 7.1% month-on-month rise. Fastmarkets called the outlook strongly bullish and pointed to strong demand, tight supply and seasonal buying. That’s a step up from the “firmly positive” October read we covered last week. It also matches the buyer poll Steel Market Update ran in late October, where market players predicted higher November prices.

Chicago-area mill supplier B.L. Duke noted in its November forecast that October’s $30/GT increase was the first upward move in prime scrap since February 2026. It expects increases across all grades this month.

Not settled yet

A forecast isn’t a settlement. As of early November, the price reporters didn’t agree on where trade stood. One analysis pointed out that SMU showed busheling up $12.50/gt while Scrap Monster had all seven ferrous categories unchanged on November 2. Settlements have run late more than once this year, so get your own bids before you count on the survey number.

Fires and tariffs

Two longer-running issues haven’t gone away. Recycling Today continues to report that lithium-ion batteries are often blamed for the growing number of fires in metal shredding. That makes infeed inspection and shredder housekeeping a safety issue, not just a maintenance one.

On trade, the June 1 Section 232 proclamation set the current steel and aluminum tariff structure through December 31, 2027. Over the summer, Resource Recycling reported that the updates weren’t likely to hit the recycling industry directly. The bigger effect for yards is indirect: tariffs keep imported steel out, domestic mills melt more scrap, and alloy and finished steel prices stay high.

What this means for your pins

Mills near 89%, a strongly bullish survey and firmer prime grades all point to a busy, well-paid November for shred, as long as you’re running. Shredded supply usually tightens when winter weather hits the yards. The operators who keep their mills turning will be the ones mills come to for tons.

That’s why wear parts matter now. An unplanned pin change during a strong month doesn’t just cost labor. It costs tons you could have sold at November prices. Pins that wear evenly and predictably keep your cost per ton shredded down and let you plan changeouts around your outbound loads, not the other way around.

Domestic pins made from 100% American steel also take tariff risk and long import lead times off the table. Before the cold sets in, count your spare set, check rotor wear and get your next order in. Keep America Shredding.